Ever since OpenAI released its generative AI chatbot ChatGPT in November 2022, investors have flocked to companies with links to AI to try to capitalize on the world-changing technology. The hype has grown to such an extent that it’s sparked a debate on Wall Street about whether investors are justified in their AI enthusiasm — or if they’re getting too excited.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who joined ChatGPT developer OpenAI’s board of directors late last year, weighed in on the debate at the Fortune Innovation Forum in Hong Kong on Thursday. “The true general rule about technological innovation is that things take longer to happen than you think, and then they happen faster than you thought they could,” he said. are.”
Unlike many AI advocates, Summers believes AI’s potential won’t fully reveal itself anytime soon. “I don’t think it’s going to be a productivity miracle in the next three to five years,” he said.
Summers said that crossing the “last mile” of technological progress — when a revolutionary technology turns into something that ordinary people can use — usually takes longer than people expect. He referred to what he called the “productivity J curve,” arguing that it takes years of investment, research, and development to realize productivity gains from a new idea.
Think of autonomous vehicles, for example. “Tens, if not thousands, of workers have been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles for years … and so far, there’s not a single driver or truck driver or taxi driver who’s lost their job,” he said. “We’ve put a bunch of effort into autonomous vehicles, and there’s no output that’s measured in data.”
But the director of the OpenAI board is far from an AI skeptic.
“If one looks at the next generation, this could be the biggest thing in economic history since the Industrial Revolution,” he added. “It offers the possibility of replacing not just some forms of human labor but almost all forms of human labor.”
From building homes to medical diagnoses, Summers predicted that AI will eventually be able to perform almost every human task, especially the “knowledge labor” of white-collar workers.
This will ultimately make EQ, or emotional intelligence, more important than IQ.
“AI will replace a difficult diagnosis doctor… before it replaces a nurse’s ability to hold a patient’s hand when the patient is scared,” he said.