For now, they are being deployed in warehouses. But supporters say the possibilities extend beyond fulfillment centers. These bots could eventually work alongside people, in homes and offices.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is among the leading evangelists. The electric vehicle maker is betting on its Optimus robot, which Musk says is “going to change the world even more than cars.”
During the company's first-quarter earnings call, Musk said Optimus could take it to a $25 trillion market cap and would represent “the majority of Tesla's long-term value.” Amazon has backed Agility Robotics, and is already deploying its Digit robots in fulfillment centers.
According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, the market for humanoids is set to reach $38 billion over the next 20 years. The firm predicts that these robots will be the next “must-have” device, not unlike smartphones or EVs. Goldman also says that humanoids “may be important for manufacturing and hazardous work, but they will also help care for the elderly and fill labor shortages in factories.”
These humanoid robots have been around for decades. But recent leaps in artificial intelligence have given the industry new hope. OpenAI's ChatGPT is the same technology that enables robots to interpret language and commands and make decisions about actions. Machines use computer vision and train in real-world scenarios just like humans.
“Robotics is where AI meets reality,” Henrik Christensen, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of California at San Diego, told CNBC. “It leads to some very interesting new combinations that I don't think we could have even imagined five years ago.”
Global labor shortages are another key to recent interest in humanoids. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, there are about 8.5 million jobs in the U.S. alone. The gap is particularly deep in manufacturing, where Goldman estimates there is a shortage of 500,000 people, which will grow to 2 million workers by 2030. Proponents say robots are filling jobs that are boring and dangerous.
“We're taking what we call slow, dirty, dangerous jobs, jobs where we have a huge labor shortage today, where we have these jobs,” said Jeff Cardenas, KCEO and co-founder. There are no people to do it.” Robot startup Apptronic.
Competition is global. China already dominates the industry, overtaking Japan as the world's largest installer of industrial robots in 2013, and now accounts for more than half the world's share, according to Stanford's AI Index report.
“The Chinese market is the biggest in the world,” said Tom Anderson, principal analyst at Style Intelligence, adding that the only other company in the West that has anything similar to China production is Amazon. “But Chinese companies are moving faster.”
Still, there are obstacles in the way. The machines are expensive, and there are safety concerns about giving robots free rein in factories.
“When it comes to mass adoption or even something resembling mass adoption, I think we're going to have to wait a few years. Maybe at least a decade,” Anderson said. ” Anderson said. “Excuse me, Musk.”
Watch the full video to learn more about the rise of humanoid robots.