Editor's note: Today, we released a report from the inaugural Technology and Society Visiting Fellow. Andrew McAfee on the potential economic impact of generative AI. This report is the product of McAfee's original research on AI and the economy, working with experts from across Google to focus on how recent advances in creative AI are impacting productivity, labor Markets can be impacted, and workers need skills to succeed in AI-driven work. The economy
Read or download Andrew McAfee's review. Full report.
Generative AI is one of those rare technologies powerful enough to accelerate overall economic growth — what economists call “general-purpose technology.” These innovations have the potential to positively transform economies and societies.
According to one estimate, about 80% of jobs in the US economy could see at least 10% of their tasks done twice as fast (with no loss in quality) through the use of generative AI.
Previous general-purpose technologies such as the steam engine and electrification have had their changes over the decades. However, we expect the effects of creative AI to be felt more quickly due to its ability to spread rapidly through the Internet and its ease of use due to its natural language interface.
This technology is already delivering huge productivity gains, which will grow and expand as people and organizations come up with complementary innovations that take advantage of creative AI capabilities. As a result, overall productivity will improve, leading to faster economic growth.
In addition to rapid development, creative AI will bring other changes. This will reduce the demand for some skills, increase the demand for others, and create demand for entirely new ones.
Fears of mass technological unemployment are probably over. The history of general-purpose technologies shows that the growth they bring is accompanied by a strong demand for labor.
However, this increased demand is often in new occupations. For example, more than 85% of total US job growth since 1940 has been in entirely new occupations.
The rapid changes brought about by the spread of generative AI will require quick and effective rescaling efforts. These efforts will be able to draw on creative AI itself, a tool that has the unique ability to help people learn how to use it better. And because creative AI aggregates knowledge and makes it available on demand, it's especially effective at improving the performance of entry-level employees, helping with wage inequality.
Previous general-purpose technologies have resulted in changes in companies and countries moving forward in various industries. We believe the generative AI will be just as powerful.