CNN
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About 10% of American workers are in jobs that face the greatest risk of disruption due to rapid growth. artificial intelligence, according to a White House analysis previously shared with CNN.
The report represents the White House’s most in-depth analysis of AI’s impact on the American workforce to date. This suggests that low-educated and low-income workers are particularly affected by AI, raising the risk that the technology could exacerbate inequality.
The findings are part of the Council of Economic Advisers’ annual economic report to the president, which devotes an entire chapter to AI and policymakers’ response.
“If we were thinking about this in terms of health, we would be saying: Who is most likely to catch the virus and what can we do to vaccinate them?” Jared Bernstein, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told CNN in an interview.
The report shows how White House officials are thinking deeply about AI and what can be done now to guide its development to ultimately benefit workers.
“There have been advances in social media and technology that governments haven’t addressed as they’ve evolved. We’re not going to let that happen with AI,” Bernstein said.
Bernstein said the White House is talking to labor unions — particularly in the service industry but also in manufacturing — about being ready for AI.
As with any new technology, experts believe that AI will complement the work of some people by making them more productive. Other jobs may disappear.
The White House report contains a number of caveats, including cautioning that AI’s ultimate impact on workers may change as technology and its capabilities evolve.
Generative AI is already capable of doing things that only humans could do in the past, such as writing humorous stories, creating realistic images and generating song lyrics.
White House economists analyzed the impact on workers by identifying 16 work activities with high exposure to AI. The researchers then sought to determine which occupations have AI-exposed activities that are central to the job itself.
The report found that about 20% of workers are in occupations with high AI exposure. This finding is similar to that of the Pew Research Center, which concluded that 19 percent of American workers in 2022 were in jobs that were most exposed to AI.
“Workers in such occupations are likely to be most affected by AI, whether positively through complementarity, or negatively through substitution or displacement,” the CEA report states. The CEA report said.
But to find out which roles are most vulnerable to homelessness, the researchers broke down the tasks by how difficult the tasks are.
“Labor substitution is easiest and cheapest in situations where complexity and complexity are low,” the report said.
In other words, the more complex the task, the safer it is. And vice versa.
Researchers found that 10% of workers have high exposure to AI and low performance needs.
Those workers “perform tasks that are most likely to be transformed as a result of AI,” the report said. It did not identify specific occupations or industries that fall into this category.
However, the researchers stressed that this does not mean that 10% of workers “will inevitably lose their jobs” as the implications for workers could be “quite critical”.
“Most jobs remain a collection of tasks, only a portion of which can be automated,” the report said. “AI can allow humans to focus on other tasks, essentially replacing their jobs without reducing their labor use.”
For example, White House economists point out that if AI eventually allows school buses to drive themselves, the job of a school bus driver won’t necessarily disappear.
“Children may still need someone on the bus to keep an eye on them, make sure they behave and ensure they get on and off safely,” the report said. ” “AI-led automation could fundamentally change the school bus driver job, but it’s unlikely to eliminate the job.”
The report notes that airlines still have pilots even though autopilot systems have been around for more than a century.
“The wrong place to start a discussion about AI is to assume without question that it will displace workers en masse. This is not the history of technology in the workplace,” Bernstein said. said
Still, some workers are more exposed to AI than others.
A White House report found that 14 percent of high school graduates without four-year degrees have jobs with high exposure to AI but lower performance requirements. In comparison, only 6% of workers with a bachelor’s degree fall into this high-risk bucket.
Similarly, women with lower performance needs were more likely to exhibit higher AI, the report said, “suggesting that women may be more vulnerable to displacement.”
Low-income workers may also face greater risks from AI disruption.
The report found that nearly 40 percent of workers in the earning third have high AI exposure and low performance demands. Higher incomes also have greater exposure to AI, but their job requirements are more complex.
The findings “suggest that AI may be a skill-based technology, increasing the relative demand for workers with higher levels of education in higher-paying occupations,” the report said. “They also suggest that AI could increase overall income inequality if it replaces jobs in low-wage jobs and complements high-wage jobs.”
The International Monetary Fund warned earlier this year that in most scenarios, AI “will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers should consider technology to exacerbate social tensions.” must be proactively addressed to prevent escalation.”
However, the White House report stresses that it’s too early to say whether AI will worsen inequality — in part because the risk could influence policy.
Bernstein said the Biden administration wants to implement policies that will reduce the risk of AI displacing workers.
“There’s always technology going on, but there’s a level of inequality in society that policymakers are willing to accept,” he said. “We will not let technological progress dictate inequality.”